{Photograph} courtesy of Atlas Brew Works.
As mass layoffs rage on throughout the federal workforce, the DC space may collectively use a beer proper now. Sadly, cracking open a domestically brewed chilly one is poised to get dearer within the coming months.
President Trump introduced hefty tariffs on all imported metal and aluminum merchandise this week. The tariffs, set to take impact in March, hark again to an identical commerce coverage that Trump carried out throughout his first time period—besides now, the penalties are extra extreme. In 2018, the US imposed a 25 % tariff on metal and 10 % tariff on aluminum; this time, each supplies shall be taxed at 25 %. Later in his first time period, Trump finally supplied exemptions to Mexico and Canada, the latter nation being America’s No.1 importer of each metal and aluminum. These exemptions should not included within the new tariff plan.
Economists are advising US shoppers to anticipate value hikes on all kinds of metallic items, from automobiles to fridges, because of these tariffs. And the {industry} behind one beloved American commodity specifically—brewed in metal, canned in aluminum—is already feeling the déjà vu.
Justin Cox, who owns native craft bewery Atlas Brew Works, says he’s feeling “very succinctly, scared” about how the looming commerce coverage will have an effect on his operations. His small enterprise grappled with elevated prices throughout Trump’s first-term tariffs, he says, and people measures have been milder compared to what the president put forth this week.
In 2018, beer producers throughout the nation felt a pressure because of elevated materials prices and the ensuing sticker shock felt by clients. That industry-wide blow trickled down domestically, inflicting huge disruptions. Like many different small breweries round that point, Atlas was dropped by its can vendor—an “existential” upset, based on Cox.
“It occurred to loads of small breweries as a result of the provision acquired so tight that they only stated, ‘You’re too little. We’re not going to promote you cans anymore,’” he says.
Finally, Atlas was capable of get again within the recreation by becoming a member of a co-op with different impartial breweries and pooling their buying energy. However even with the assets to fabricate, Cox anticipates that prices will skyrocket. “If these tariffs go into place and keep, it’s completely going to be value will increase throughout the board,” he says. “Simply common microeconomics: Drive your costs going up, and the demand goes to go down.”
Because of main employment shakeups in his DC-area buyer base, Cox has already been shedding enterprise. Atlas’s Beer Membership program misplaced a piece of subscribers final month: He says loyal patrons have been sending him emails to the impact of, “Hey, I must cancel this membership subscription. I simply acquired laid off at USAID.”
With some Atlas clients tightening their belts even earlier than the tariffs take impact, Cox is steeling himself for the influence that elevated manufacturing prices—and thus, increased costs—may have on the brewery’s livelihood. In contrast to its big-name rivals, Atlas doesn’t have sufficient stock house to maintain years’ price of empty cans in inventory for a wet day. “We’re capable of preserve about six months or so,” Cox says. “We’re way more susceptible to cost fluctuations because of that.”
Cox estimates that jacked-up metal and aluminum costs will drive Atlas’ manufacturing prices up about 20 % for every case of canned beer. Why not swap to glass bottles? Packaging selections are made and kind of finalized early on within the technique of opening a brewery, Cox says. Not solely would it not be costly to put in a bottling line now, however Atlas simply doesn’t have sufficient bodily real-estate to accommodate one. In line with Cox, that pivot wouldn’t be completely “off the desk,” however he estimates the adjustments would take not less than a 12 months to implement.
Already, District beer drinkers throughout the board have a tendency to not purchase native. “All the DC brewing scene accounts for possibly 2.5 % of the beer that’s bought in DC,” Cox says. And alcohol gross sales have been on the decline typically as shoppers grapple with inflation—2024 marked the primary time in 20 years that extra craft breweries shuttered than opened. Even buyers who’re prepared to shell out any extra cash on beer are much less inclined to go for their neighborhood craft choice.
“If you happen to’re within the grocery retailer and also you’re wanting on the beer shelf and there’s 99 completely different beers, and also you see the Atlas six-pack and it’s $2 greater than the Sierra six-pack or no matter it might be—the patron shouldn’t be considering, ‘Oh, they have to be impacted by these tariffs and their provide chain. Three folks upstream from them are having to pay extra for this uncooked materials,’” Cox says. “It virtually feels prefer it’s Atlas’s fault, however a rise in value shouldn’t be going into our pocket. That’s simply going out the door and up the chain to pay for these tariffs.”
